Super Bowl: Steelers vs Seahawks
GAME-TIME RUN/PASS BALANCE
The Run/Pass Balance stat is one of the most important stats
separating winners from losers. In the AFC Championship game of 2005,
the Denver Broncos hosted the Pittsburgh Steelers.
These two stat graphics from our EDUCATION SECTION
picture the run/pass play-by-play for each
team.
Typically, early in each game this chart points to the winner.
Reason why? Since a team can't run and pass on the same play the more
they run the less they pass. By simply dividing rushing plays by pass
attempts you create a "balance" or ratio of one stat to another.
For the average NFL game this ratio is near 1 run-to-1 pass.
But when a team scores early, they tend to run more. There are reasons
for this.
First, the strong running teams run because they have the ability.
Both Seattle and Pittsburgh went to the Super Bowl on Feb. 5th with
great running games. The Seahawks' RB Shaun Alexander led the league
with 1880 rushing yards; and the Steelers' Jerome Bettis pounded the
opposition for years. He's a horse.
Second, a major reason for running more than you pass is simply,
strong teams score early. Then, as the game progresses, to protect
their lead they stay on the ground to keep the clock rolling.
Third each stat contributes point value to both offense and defense.
For example, on average one QB sack contributes 3 points to the
winning margin; one interception contributes 5+ points; and one run
adds 1 point.
So if a team runs 40 times vs their opponent's 30 rushes the
difference of 10 rushes contributes 10 points to the scoring
differential.
And finally if you add one unit to the Run/Pass Ratio (moving from 1
run-to-pass to 2-to-1) then you typically add a huge 12 points to the
scoring differential.
Hey, that's a lotta' points.
In the stat graphics (links above) you see that throughout the Championship
game Steeler Coach Bill Cowher stayed close to the 1-to-1 line. Then
he stayed on the ground in the 4th quarter to run out the clock.
But early in the game when the Denver Bronco's fell behind by two
scores they went to the air with 31 pass attempts and only 21 rushes
(a ratio of 0.6-to-1).
Less than 1-to-1 is below average. It points to more passing which
leads to more QB sacks and INTS. Each of these is a costly error.
So in money games use this run/pass balance stat to project a final
winner.
Parents and kids can watch the game together and learn a bit about the
science, math and statistics of football by simply plotting an "R" for
each running play in the "down" column and a "P" for each pass across
each horizontal row as done in the Pit-Den plots (links above).
Play this "play-by-play" game and be the first kids on the block to
tab the most likely winner.
On your computer you can PRINT this statistical Run/Pass Balance FORM
for each team.
And have some fun watching the games with your kids. The FOOTBALL
MATH graphics found in our EDUCATION SECTION are easy to use.
And fill the needs recognized by all 50 states which now "require"
stat methods be taught K-12.
Have fun.
Bud Goode
Copyright 2006, BudGoodeSports.com. All rights reserved.
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