Jets at Patriots

With the Pats on offense and the Jets on D the key stat is a measure of passing efficiency. Add QB sack yards to INT yards is a pure measure of efficiency. The Pats' QB Brady loses only 16 yards per game ranking 4th.

The Jets' D earns a modest 18 yards per game.

The stat graphic below pictures the huge gap between these two performances which gives the Pats a 6-point advantage.

Passing Efficiency New England Patriots 2006 through Week 17

Opp Pass Eff Yds New York Jets 2006 through Week 17

The Pats' QB Brady is a most efficient passer (Pats are weaker than average in only 2 games, above the light blue line in chart above). It is flip side for the Jets' pass D which is weaker than league average in all but one game.

The second most important stat is the Run/Pass balance. The stat graphic below pictures this imbalance:

Rushes per Pass Att New England Patriots 2006 through Week 17

Opp Rush/Opp Pass Att New York Jets 2006 through Week 17

The Pats typically score early and use their ground game to roll the clock. The stat graphic pictures the Pats' 9 gmes at or above the light blue average line and winning all 9 games.

By comparison the Jets lost all 6 of the games where their opposition ran the ball more than they passed.

Give the Pats another 5-point edge.

The Patriots should win this contest by 11 points.

Bud Goode

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