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49ers at Panthers

The reigning NFC champs bested the Packers last week. Now they go to Carolina to face a fierce Panther opponent that has a very similar stat profile to their own. In this round of NFC Divisional Playoffs, 3 teams: the 49ers, Panthers and Seahawks are very close in their stat profiles. They play the game the same way and earned stikingly similar figures on key stats. They feature strong defense, especially against the pass; well-balanced offensive attacks (they all average 30 rushes) and an efficient passing approach that limits costly mistakes (sacks and INTs). They all have mobile QBs who can pull the down and take off if in trouble. It's a champion's profile.

If the Seahawks get by the Saints in the first weekend game, one of these 3 teams will go on to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl. Seahawks earned slightly stronger stats than the 49ers or Panthers, and would be our pick, but any of the 3 can make it. The wining team will be the one whose coaching staff prepares the best offensive and defensive game plans, whose players best execute the plan, and whose playmakers can make the great play at the critical moment.

The Seawhawks and 49ers are no surprise by now. The Panthers improved on last season's 7-9 record (they did win their last 4 in a row) to win the AFC South over the Saints. Primarily they do it with defense, leading the league in QB sacks and rushing attempts allowed. Forcing opponents to throw gives them more chances for big defensive plays. They are second in the league in points allowed just behind the Seahawks (see chart below).

Total Points Allowed

Carolina Panthers

2013 through Week 17


Like last week's SF-GB game this contest provides a showcase QB matchup: Kaepernick vs Newton. Computer likes Carolina at home by 5. I'd rate this a toss up.

Bill Sanders for BudGoodeSports.com
dr.bill@wrsanders.com

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