Chiefs at Patriots

Fresh off a huge win vs Texans, the Chiefs roar in to New England to take on the defending champs. Can the Chiefs make it 12 in a row? They're underdogs to do so, but momentum is on their side. In their first 7 games Chiefs faced 6 playoff teams, winning only twice. After which their schedule eased dramatically, no doubt helping out the win streak.

They did it with defense, allowing just 0.49 points per pass attempt ranking 2nd. See weekly chart below. Note that in only two games were they weaker than average (at GB and at CIN). In all the rest, Chiefs were considerably stronger than league average.

How will the Patriots handle the Chiefs' stingy pass D? That's the key question as the Pats' are pretty much a one-sided, pass-only offense. On our key stat, yards per pass attempt, NE ranks 7th at 6.9 but note the strong start and weak finish in the graph below. They've had some injury problems leading to lackluster results in the season's second half. They are getting help as WR Edelman returns. They'll need it.

Despite the celebrity-status of the Patriots' offense, the statistical reasons this team wins Super Bowls has always been their unyielding defense. And this Pats' defense might be too strong for a modest KC offense. The computer sees the Pats as 4-point favorites at home. Bill says, throw out the first half-season and the Chiefs are the better team. Looks like a toss up but I'll go with the hot-streaking KC club. Should be a great game to kick off an outstanding Divisional Playoff series.

Bill Sanders for BudGoodeSports.com
dr.bill@wrsanders.com

Copyright 2016, BudGoodeSports.com. All rights reserved.