Chiefs vs 49ers

Chiefs beat the Ravens and meet the 49ers in Las Vegas for all the chips. We expected the 49ers to be here, based on their play this season. The Chiefs shouldn't be a surprise based on what they've done over the past few seasons. This is a heck of a matchup. Chiefs bring to this game the best defensive squad we've seen from them. They face a talented 49er team that had two 5-game win streaks where they put big points on the board.

It looks like the Chiefs are peaking now, playing their best ball of the season. 49ers made it through but don't look like the powerhouse they were during the hot streaks. Yes, they got by the Lions and the Packers. Barely. They'll need to play up to their best level to overcome the Chiefs. Chiefs have kept their opponents off the scoreboard all season long.

The chart below shows just how effective the Chiefs' D is at keeping their opponents from scoring.

Both teams come in near the top on pass defense where KC ranks 3rd and SF 4th. They say defense wins playoff games and both competitors are top 5. See both teams on the defensive side of our Killer Stat, (Yards per Pass attempt) chart. Killer Stat, Defense.

On passing offense, 49ers rank first, league's best. While the Chiefs come in at 12 based on full season play. But in these playoffs they are performing like the KC teams of the recent past. We know QB Mahomes can be league's best on any given Sunday. Killer Stat, Offense.

The computer likes the 49ers by 11. All season long it's picked the 49ers for the Super Bowl and here they are. Eleven points is a hell of a lot to give to the Chiefs in a playoff game. I don't see it. Looking at recency, Chiefs, right now, are playing their best ball of the season. 49ers not so much. Chiefs had to get by Miami, Buffalo, and Baltimore. All 3 had great seasons with Ravens our computer's pick for Super Bowl from the AFC. Convincing performances for the Chiefs. I'm not sold on the 49ers.

My guess: Chiefs are playing at least 5 points better than their full season stats and 49ers 5 points weaker. On the neutral field in Las Vegas I'm calling it even. A pick 'em. Backed into a corner, I'd say Chiefs. Could go either way and whoever gets the breaks or grabs a late turnover should win. I recall one of Bud's favorite sayings when asked to predict a close game: "We never know which way a pointy ball will bounce." Love the matchup; it's all you could ask for and this should be a great Super Bowl game.

Bill Sanders for BudGoodeSports.com
dr.bill@wrsanders.com

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