Ravens at Bills

After the win at home vs Steelers, Ravens visit Buffalo to take on the Bills.

In last week's Wildcard feature we highlighted the Ravens' offense, (check it out if you missed it). For example, Ravens lead the league on independent stats yards per pass, yards per play and offensive giveaways (tie with Bills), all contributing to a 3rd rank in points scored, where Buffalo sits at the top.

In the above mentioned Ravens' feature for last week, we looked their Yards Gained. Let's do the same for Buffalo. Pictured below, Bills rank 8. Somewhat less than Ravens as they don't get as many rushing yards.

Bills sit at or near the top of many offensive stats, for example, giveaways, passing efficiency, and times sacked. Looking at both teams on our pass offense stat, yards per pass attempt, Ravens rank 1 and Bills rank 5. A matchup of top teams. Killer Stat, Offense.

On the defensive side of the same stat, a measure of pass D, it's a virtual tie at ranks 15 and 17, 6.16 yards allowed to 6.18 for Bills and Ravens, respectively, see Killer Stat, Defense.

Our computer likes Bills by 3 points after getting 3 for the home field. Two dead even teams with only the homefield advantage making the difference. The two teams have near identical stat profiles. Move the ball on offense and take good care of it with very few giveaways.

I suspect they both can play tougher D than shown in their percentile ranks as their powerful offenses put them ahead on the scoreboard and they end up playing a lot of soft defense. I see it as a pick 'em game. Since I have to pick, I like the run game of the Ravens. I'll go with Baltimore. This should be the best game of the Divisional Playoffs. The winner here could make it all the way to the Big Game!

Bill Sanders for BudGoodeSports.com
dr.bill@wrsanders.com

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