Chiefs vs Eagles

Chiefs won again, playing just well enough to edge the Bills. We can't doubt their ability to outplay their season-long stats and up their game when needed. It's now a standard disclaimer of this commentary re Chiefs. Can they do it yet again vs Eagles in the Super Bowl?

Our computer doesn't think so and expects no 3-peat. Reason: Philadelphia Eagles fit the model for winning football. They run, run, run the ball, leading the league in rushing attempts. They limit opportunities for their own passing mistakes. By successfully running, making first downs and eating clock, they deny their opponents the ball and limit opponent scoring opportunities. Eagles have a top-measured pass defense. Please see the features on the earlier Eagles' playoff games for a full discusiion of how their offensive strategy leads to winning.

Not saying the KC pass offense can't work miracles, as usual, but they will have to do it against a stout pass defense. Eagles give up few yards through the air.

Again, while their season-long stat average might not mean that much, it's worth noting that the Chiefs ranked surprisingly low on our key pass offense stat, yards per pass attempt, 21st in the league. Eagles rank 10th. Killer Stat, Offense.

On the defensive side of the same stat, a measure of pass D, Eagles are league's strongest, ranking number 1. Chiefs D is also strong coming in at rank 9. This game may have a bit of a defensive-struggle flavor to it. See Killer Stat, Defense.

Our computer likes the Eagles at neutral site, New Orleans, by 5 points. On paper, that looks right. Bearing in mind KC's ability to outplay their stats and engineer last-minute drives for the win, something we've seen time after time, it's reasonable to expect more of the same. I'm a skeptic, though. After missing on the Buffalo call, I'm doing it again. I'm siding with our computer and going with the Eagles to win Big Game.

Bill Sanders for BudGoodeSports.com
dr.bill@wrsanders.com

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