SF 49ers vs Tampa Bay Bucs

This week the 49ers transport their west coast offense from San Francisco Bay to Tampa Bay where they face the league-leading Bucaneer pass D. The Bucs don't just sit quietly atop the pass defense stats, they've distanced themselves from the pack.

On our Killer Stat-Defense, yards per pass attempt, they allow opponents a mere 4.56 yards per toss. The 2nd-ranked Giants allow 5.33. This huge difference is pictured in the Killer Stat-Defense Percentile Rank chart. Look at the center graph and observe the great difference between Tampa Bay (at the top) and the rest of the league. And note the percentile ranks: Bucs, 100 and Giants, 72. The Bucs are like the student that killed the curve on the final exam. They get the only A. And the second best Giants get a B-.

Huge gap between the first and second ranked teams.

This points up a major problem with typical TV commentary that describes stat performance by rank alone. In this example there is a great difference between the 1st-ranked Bucs and 2nd-ranked Giants. And almost no difference between the 2nd-ranked Giants down through the 9th-ranked Steelers.

In the 49ers win last week vs the 2nd-ranked-pass-D Giants, QB Garcia and company earned an impressive 7.9 yards per pass attempt. But the top-ranked Bucs' pass D is a horse of a different color.

Tampa Bay also leads the league on INTs, stealing 1.94 per game. Again they are an outlier--off the chart. There is huge gap to the 2nd-ranked Ravens that grab 1.56 intercepts for percentile rank 73. The chart below pictures Bucs' weekly performance on INTs. The dark blue moving average line shows the Bucs were much stronger than league average (light blue line) all season.

The Bucs' 4 losses stand out as low INT games. Losing to Saints, Eagles, Saints again and Steelers they grabbed 1, 1, 0, 0 INTs.

Can the Bucs win without defensive intercepts?

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On offense the Bucs have problems running the football. They rank 27th in the league on yards rushing; their weekly performance is pictured in the graph below.

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Bucs rushed for over 100 yards in only 5 games. With a modest running game, they can't count on a ball-control, clock-control offense. They depend on their defense to stop the other team--putting the ball back in the hands of the Bucs.

If 49ers can effectively use the ground game and safe, ball-control, short-pass offense they will avoid throwing INTs and they are in the game.

If the two teams play to statistical form, the computer projects an 8-point Tampa Bay victory.

Bud Goode and Bill Sanders

Tomorrow: NY Jets/Oakland

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