Goode's Points per Pass Attempt
NEW: This is a new stat graphic feature.
Goode's Points per Pass Attempt
uses the run/pass balance to project each team's Won/Lost record.
In the 2001 season this stat correlated 96% with the winning margin.
It is a key stat.
And the graphs below show there is a tight correlation between a team's winning margin and Points per Pass.
When a team improves on Points per Pass they tend to improve on their scoring differential (Winning Margin).
The graphs show this improvement is "proportional" (big moves on Points per Pass lead to big moves in Winning Margin.)
What does it tell us about the game? Simple: It "explains" the
journalistic reason why teams win. Points per Pass is not,
repeat NOT just a measure of passing efficiency. Since a team can't run and pass
on the same play, it measures the run/pass BALANCE.
Both offensive and defensive stats are used (Points per
Pass DIFFERENCE).
To see ranks for all 32 teams, go to the Points per Pass Attempt Differential percentile chart
or the Points Behind Leader, Points per Pass Attempt chart.
If you have questions about your favorite team, email
Bill Sanders
or Bud Goode.
Division Notes
NFC West / AFC East --
Get ready for this: through week 8, the two teams losing most ground on our most
important stat separating winners from losers, Goode's Points per Pass Attempt, are last year's
Super Bowl entries, the New England Patriots and the St. Louis Rams.
Goode's Points per Pass Attempt shares a common goal with our three Killer Stats:
to project a team's Won/Lost record early in the season.
The Pats are the most down team in the AFC, losing -12.14 points per game in their winning margin (scoring differential).
Allowing -0.31 points per pass more than their offense earns, the Patriots season projects to an 8-8 W/L record.
At this point, they appear to be out of the playoffs.
The Rams recovered a bit from their poor start winning their last two games. To date, Rams lost -13.14 points in
their winning margin on the key points per pass attempt stat.
They are the league's most down team.
Giving up -0.19 points per pass more than they earn on offense, the Rams project to a W/L record of 6-10.
With a little luck they can do better as they are projected to lose
three games by 3 points or less.
But they will need lots of luck to make the playoffs.
Bud Goode
Editor's note: The above comments were written after week 8 but the graphs below are updated through end season.
| 
