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Bengals at Rams

Rams beat their division rivals, 49ers and make it to the big game to face the Bengals, who beat the Chiefs in KC. There is not much difference in these two teams -- a recurring theme in this year's playoffs. I feel like I've written this same piece several times already.

Both teams are super at passing the football. On yards per pass attempt, our killer stat offense Bengals rank no. 2 (barely behind the 49ers at 7.65 to 7.69) and Rams rank no. 3. This stat, (created by Bud Goode) sure looks like an important stat for separating winners from losers. Expect both teams to have a good measure of success through the air.

But the game is played on both sides of the ball and here we see a bit of daylight between the two teams with the L.A. Rams pass D a bit tougher. On our killer stat, defense -- yards per pass attempt allowed Rams rank 11th with the Bengals coming in at no. 20. Looking closer, the percentile rank and raw numbers are not so different with Rams at percentile rank 63 and Bengals at 49 (both near mid-pack). Rams allow 5.94 and Bengals 6.26 about a 1 foot difference per pass attempt.

Bengals pass D came up big grabbing 2 INTs vs the Chiefs. Rams grabbed one and held the league-leading pass offense (49ers) to just 17 points. Both defenses came through. The team the manages a great D effort in this Super Bowl should come out on top.

Here is the weekly chart of Rams and opponent yards per pass allowed. The did have 8 games allowing a very low number, sub 5 yards. So they can be tough. Look through the past Bengals and Rams comments to see more such charts.

2021 through Week 17


      Opponent Yards per Pass Allowed - L. A. Rams

Our computer likes the Rams by 3.5 but that's basically the homefield advantage for the Rams. If this was at a traditional, neutral site, this would be a dead-even matchup. Rams catch a break, playing in their own stadium. Will it be the difference?

I will go with the Rams based on their (slightly) stronger pass D and the level of competition faced, coming out of the super-strong NFC West. This could easily go either way. The team that comes out a wee bit sharper, or makes a big play, or catches a break when the pointy ball bounces in a funny direction, or is on the lucky side of bad call may well be the winner. We love games like this -- statistically even matchups. The team that rises to the occassion with a super performance or possibly a better game plan, wins it!

Bill Sanders for BudGoodeSports.com
dr.bill@wrsanders.com

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