Cowboys at Buccaneers
While the third Florida playoff team gets to play at home, they've got no easy draw in the Cowboys.
Finishing second in the strongest division in the league, this is a talented Cowboys team loaded with playmakers. Although winning the division
last season, the Cowboys' playoff bid ended early with an at home, first-round loss to the surprisingly strong (not to us, however--see last season's
playoff comments) 49er squad. I'm sure the 'Boys will be well-motivated to turn things arournd now.
Let's look at the weekly
Predict Report,
which includes a stat matchup table at the bottom of the page.
The 12-5 Cowboys have a strength in running the ball at 31.5 rushes per game, near league top with the (8-9) Bucs at 23 near league bottom.
Big advantage, Dallas.
Unless QB Brady is near flawless with the possession-passing attack, Cowboys should own the clock.
On the most important stat in the game, yards per pass attempt, things are closer to even. See
killer stat, offense,
where Cowboys rank 11th and Bucs rank an un-Brady-like 20th.
On the other side of the ball, the two teams are excellent and equally matched,
killer stat, defense,
with Dallas ranking 3rd and TB ranking 4th. We'll credit Dallas with a very slight overall edge (offense minus defense) in the passing game.
A stat we should talk about more, total points scored vs total points allowed, highlights the lopsided nature of this matchup. Dallas is
far on the positive side of the ledger scoring 125 points more than they allowed. Not so good for the Bucs at -45 or giving up substantially
more points than they could score over the season. An average team would be at 0.
Because this game is in Tampa, by virtue of the Bucs topping a very weak division, they get an extra three points in the projected scoring differential.
Even so,
our computer likes the visiting Cowboys by 8.5. I also like the Cowboys to win big and if so, perhaps QB Brady should consider retirement -- this time
for good. On the other hand, maybe he's got one last magic act to perform? Watch and see this Monday night!
Bill Sanders for BudGoodeSports.com
dr.bill@wrsanders.com
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