Jaguars at Chiefs

This Saturday the Jacksonville Jags, one-point winners in a wild comeback at home over the Chargers, take on the Chiefs in KC. Chiefs have been a premier NFL club for a few years now.

We refer you to the weekly Predict Report which includes a stat matchup table at the bottom of the page. This table shows the stat profiles of the two clubs. The KC defense sacks opposing QBs three times per game -- a strong figure and one sack better than the Jags' D. Additionally, the all-around passing game of the Chiefs is stronger.

On yards per pass attempt, our killer stat, offense, Chiefs rank 2nd while the Jaguars rank 12th.

On the other side of the ball, on pass defense, killer stat, defense, Chiefs rank 10th with the Jags at 26th. On the overall, offense minus defense that's a pretty big edge to the Chiefs.

Our computer picks the Chiefs by 6.5 including 3 points for the home field. I think that's a pretty fair prediction but we've already seen from last week how hard it is to project pro football results. The statistical variability is so high. Look at the difference in perfomance, just betweeen halves, for Jags' young QB Lawrence. Which one will show up? I surely don't know, but in any event it looks like KC's QB Mahomes has the easier task, throwing against the softer D. Chiefs should win by a comfortable margin and go deep into the playoffs. Maybe all the way.

Bill Sanders for BudGoodeSports.com
dr.bill@wrsanders.com

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