Dolphins at Bills

This Florida team is not so lucky as to play at home this Sunday. Not only do the Dolphins travel to chilly Bufallo, they have to face a strong opponent in the Bills. With a record of 9-8 and giving up 2 more points than they scored all year, Dolphins look like a perfectly average team.

Once again, we point you to the weekly Predict Report which includes a stat matchup table at the bottom of the page. The Dolphins are not without statistical strengths. They lead the league on the offensive side of yards per pass attempt, the most important stat in the game. See killer stat, offense. Bills are right behind, ranking 4th.

On the other side of the ball, it's the other way around, killer stat, defense, with Miami ranking 21st and Bills ranking 6th. So give an edge to the Bills on the overall stat offense minus defense.

In addition to their modest pass defense the Dolphins don't run much when they do have the ball as seen in their number of rushing attempts, way below league average. This hurts their ability to control the ball and adds to their opponents' clock time. Probably why they gave up too many points over the season.

The most likely unsurmountable problem for the Dolphins this week is facing a very stout Bills pass D without their fine young QB Tua. He's the one who earned the great passing stat. His replacement is mostly untested and even at that, they may end up having to play the replacement's replacement. Looks like the kiss of death.

Our computer likes Buffalo at home by 10.5 and that's without considering the crippling injuries to the Dolphins. The computer has been high on the Bills all year, pegging them for the Super Bowl at times. I think the margin of victory will be higher and don't give Miami much of chance to stay in this game as I also look for the Bills to make a deep playoff run.

Bill Sanders for BudGoodeSports.com
dr.bill@wrsanders.com

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