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49ers at Eagles

Just like last year, the 49ers had little troube getting past the Cowboys but now travel to Philly to take on the Eagles. Eagles, for their part, overcame wildcard, division rivals, the Giants, to play for the NFC Conference Championship.

Please see the weekly Predict Report, which includes a stat matchup table at the bottom of the page. Eagles show some statistical strengths. First, they can run the ball but so can the 49ers, will call that a push. We'll note a slight for the Eagles in the passing game.

Here we see passing offense, with a tiny advantage to Philly on killer stat, offense where Eagles rank 3rd and 49ers 5th.

And on defense, just a sliver-sized advantage to Eagles on our killer stat, defense. The Eagles lead the league ranking first, but the 49ers are close behind, ranking 5th.

With ranks of 3 and 1 on offense and defense, Eagles lead the league on the difference stat, offense minus defense, our killer stat. The 49ers are close behind with offense and defense ranks of 5 and 5, coming in second in the NFC on the difference stat. This one stat predicts the two teams in the Conference Championshiop! It is the most important stat in the game.

It should be no surprise that two teams with such overall strength in the passing game made it this far. I'll point out one more stat and that's Eagles defensive QB sacks at more than 4 per game, very strong. Our computer likes the Eagles by 4.5 after giving them 3 points for the home field. On a nuetral field this projects to a 1 or 2-point game, very tight. So even leading the league on key pass D stats, the Eagles barely eek out a small edge. I will go with the Eagles as well as they usually play extra tough in Philly and west coast teams typically have a difficult time with the trip all the way east to play in the cold. But a 49er upset would be no surprise at all. A great stat-matchup game between two outstanding teams well-deserving their spots in this conference championship.

Bill Sanders for BudGoodeSports.com
dr.bill@wrsanders.com